Mariner Optimism

I am and always have been a Mariner optimist. Before every season, even with a lack of talent, I believe through some sort of wizardry the Mariners can win the American League West.

Don't ask me why I feel this way, especially in the years when Jamie Moyer was our staff ace. You shouldn't expect to make the playoffs when your best pitcher is only a 10-15 game winner every season. Still, I expect to see a new banner hanging every year in the best stadium in America. Safeco Field!

Halfway through the season, the Mariners are fighting for every win and find themselves just a few games back in the West. Am I an optimist to believe the M's can make the playoffs? Beltre is out for 6-8 weeks and being replaced by an aging veteran, Chirs Woodard, and a guy who never sees first base in Cedeno. The bottom of our lineup is plagued with guys hitting barely 200. We have some of the worst hitting catchers in the league in Jojima, Johnson, and Burke.

Nonetheless, I still believe the Mariners can make the playoffs. Bedard can come back and give the rotation a shot in the arm. Olson can pitch the rest of the year like he did in Dodger Stadium. Griffey can get hot and hit a few more homers. Jose Lopez is crushing the ball and will end the year around .280-.300. as usual. In other words, anything can happen.

I am leaning towards the Mariners buying come July 31st trade deadline if we are still in the playoff picture. But I want the M's to buy smart. I am not willing to trade away the future for a run at the playoffs today. We just don't have the pieces to do that yet.

I'm proposing we add a bat for cash. Most teams in the Major Leagues want to dump payroll come trade time. The Mariners can take advantage of the current market, add a bat for cash, and not give up any prospects. Instead of trading Washburn and Bedard for below average prospects, since MLB "insiders" don't believe teams will give up much come the deadline, the M's can stockpile draft picks by letting their class A and B prospects leave in free agency.

The Mariners have options, and July is going to be a fun month for baseball in Seattle!

Erik Bedard: Keep or Trade?

Now that the M’s are back to only one game under .500 and only 5.5 games out of first place in the AL West, the pressure on Jack Z to sign or deal Bedard is at an all-time high.

Fans seem to be in one of two camps: either trade the lefty to the highest bidder or lock him up to a long term deal. Bedard is like Two-Face in Batman—there are two different sides to him. You either love or hate the guy.

The Seattle Times ran an article a few days back about Bedard stating that he really does want to play for the M’s long-term, saying, “I love Seattle. I can’t complain– the city, the fans, the stadium, all of the new coaches we got, the players. It’s a lot of fun. I love it here.”

Is this posturing by Bedard or truly genuine? The same article also mentioned how Bedard and Jay Buhner have formed a friendship over fishing and Bedard typically fishes at Buhner’s house in Issaquah a few times a week when the M’s are in town. Should this make any difference to the M’s?

No, but it is worth examining further.

Bedard, never one for the limelight or big city, may actually like it in Seattle and may even be pitching better to stay here. Or in an effort to make a crap load of money elsewhere. Who knows? Let's look at what you get from the Candadian lefty.

Here are the positives:

-Bedard owns the sickest left-handed hook in baseball. Period.

-He is also 5-2 with a miniscule earned run average of only 2.47 (This is the American League people!!) His win/losses would be even better if not for the anemic M’s offense.

-Having an all-star season—should have more wins to show for it.

-In 65 innings of work, Bedard has only allowed 54 hits and has struck out a whopping 65.

-Left-handers are only hitting .203 against the dominant south-paw.

-He has allowed no more than 3 runs in any of his 11 starts.

Here are the negatives:

-Has only gone more than 7 innings in two starts.

-Highly injury prone—weak back and hip.

-Tendency to leave games early after hitting self-imposed “100 pitch limit.”

-Will never live up to magnitude of the Adam Jones trade

-Poor attitude (reminds me of Grumpy Smurf: I hate baseball)

While Bedard is truly pitching like the ace we all expected in the trade last season with the Dirty Birds, he is also the hottest commodity on the trade market. The Phillies obviously need another horse in the rotation and Bedard could be their man. Jack Z would be silly not to demand the farm in any trade for the south-paw and should explore all avenues.

If the M’s decide to lock him up long term, they would have a dominant 1-2 punch for the next three to five years. With any additional offense in future Jack Z trades, King and Bedard just might be the most feared 1-2 punch in baseball. These two arms in the starting rotation can win playoff series by themselves. With ANY offense, these two could win 20 games apiece. Easily.

In the end, I tend to bounce back and forth on what to do with Bedard. One minute I hate him, the next I stand up and yell when I watch that 12-6 hook absolutely freeze left handed hitters.

I’m putting my faith in Jack Z on this one to do the right thing whatever that is…

What does everyone else think?

Keep or Trade?

Phillies Shaping Into Bonafide Suitor

At least 6 Mariners are on the trading block now that our boys of very early spring have caused our front office to reach the inevitable realization that we will not be competing for a World Series championship (despite all of our hopes and prayers), says SI.com's prolofic baseball writer Jon Heyman.

Heyman says underachieving Canadian mercenary Erik Bedard will be the top target for a handful of clubs, with the Phillies shooting up the list of possible suitors after finding out that Brett Meyers may miss the rest of the season.

Others mentioned were the usual suspects: Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn, Yuniesky Betancourt, Miggy Batista and Russell "the Muscle" Branyan.

Phillies will also be targeting the ultra-talented Jake Peavy. But Peavy already turned down a trade to the White Sox and may not be willing to accept a trade to any team except the water-treading Cubs who still insanely harbor World Series aspirations despite being only a couple of games better than the M's. This leaves Bedard as the Phillies number one option.

And we all know how Bedard feels about being in Philly over Seattle. Jerk.

I'm not sure who the Phillies have on the farm, but I think we should start scouring it for new Mariners.

I Told You So: Losing All Part of M's Plan

A lot of panic in Marinerland today. Three losses to division leading Texas; two more blown saves by Brandon Morrow. Mariner blogs are in flames. For most of the past month, many writers here and everywhere proclaimed the M's to be a contender. Heck, even national sages like Ken Rosenthal posted last week that the M's won't be sellers.

Not me.

The tide bobs up and down, but I, The Doubter, keep telling you, "75 wins." The plan was never to win this year. Honestly, the plan doesn't include contending in the year 2010. This year is about:

1. Seeing who can play (Gutierrez, Lopez, Morrow, and a few of the relievers)
2. Restocking the farm system through the draft
3. Making trades to increase overall talent (The July 31 Trading Deadline)
4. Developing the kids already on the farm (Raben, Saunders, Carp, Tui, etc.).
5. Shedding payroll

It would have been nice (but a pipe dream) to contend. However, contending would've complicated Jack Z's plan and might have been a public relations disaster. The M's would have to consider foregoing potential trades in order to stay competitive. While no one wants to lose, I am sure that Jack Z isn't that upset that the M's will probably be 10-20 games under by August.

It was fool's gold that the M's were contenders in the 2007 season. As a result, management made one of the worst trades in franchise history serving up Adam Jones (top 10 hitter in the AL and possible All-Star) + George Sherill (All-Star closer) + 3 high ceiling pitching prospects in exchange for malcontent loser Erik Bedard. The M's will regret that deal for the next 15 years. How much better would the M's be if they hadn't performed surprisingly well in 2007?

This time, let's build something right. Let's trust Jack Z to go out and build the core of a winning team. Remember the M's in the mid 1990s? A lineup that featured monster hitters like: Griffey, Buhner, Martinez, Tino, Blowers, Wilson and Cora (and A-Rod for a little while). We need to get back to that model.

So, rather than have any expectations or hard feelings, let's just enjoy summertime baseball with the knowledge that we aren't on a train to nowhere like last time. This time, we're going to play Moneyball and build our club around:
* Starting pitching
* Young hitters
* Philosophy of patience and OBP
* Cheap bullpen help (high-priced closers are overrated)
* Assets, assets, assets

Patience. It's all part of the plan.