M's Need to Make Moves: Who's Going, Who's Staying

With the Mariners likely falling out of contention well before the trade deadline, they would be well-advised to start lining up potential trade partners and begin to assess their opponents’ minor league prospects.

Again, my biggest fear is that the M’s will deliver false hope and remain in contention thereby making it more difficult to justify trading veterans for prospects. It’s a tricky balancing act. The M’s need their trade chips to play well enough to increase their value but for the team to remain far enough outside of the race in order to necessitate said trades.

It would be suicide for the M’s to fail to move their assets only to see them walk away for nothing as free agents. If you have followed my posts over the past two months, you’ll see that I have been consistent in my advocacy of how the team should be demolished as well as how it should be re-constructed. Here are the likely moves:

Pack your bags:

1. Jarrod Washburn

With an improved defense, Jarrod has pitched well enough to warrant interest from several teams. He can help another team as a fairly decent 3rd of 4th starter and can pitch well into ballgames. Some say he's developed a "cutter." Whatever. Although, he’ll cost around $5 million for the stretch run, Wash has a lot of value as a lefty innings eater and can occasionally be brilliant.

Destination:

The Twins, Yankees, Phillies, Angels, Rangers, Breweres, White Sox, and Cubs, will all have interest. Unless packaged with another player, the M’s will likely receive only a low level “B” prospect or two.


2. Erik Bedard

Bedard has been spectacular in 2009 and hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in any of his starts. The team’s crappy hitting has held down his win totals but that doesn’t matter. Owed less than $4 million after July, Bedard will be seen as a classic rent-a-player who can help carry a team to the playoffs.

Destination:

The Yankees, Phillies, White Sox, Cubs, Red Sox, Tigers and Dodgers are all interested. The M’s should net at least one impact minor leaguer and several B level prospects. If the failed Jake Peavy trade to Chicago is any indicator, teams are wisely holding onto their prospects and not giving much up in return. The Yanks have outfield talent to spare while Philly has solid AA pitching. Look for Jack to make the best possible haul – with Philly matching up the best for the M’s.

3. Adrian Beltre

Beltre will undoubtedly heat up in the next 30 days – hopefully increasing his trade value. He's been awful so far. As a type “B” free agent, Beltre is in no-man’s land. He’s not valuable enough to keep (M’s won’t get a 1st round draft pick for him) and he wants out. Teams will value his defense and will gamble that his stats are deflated by playing in a pitcher’s park.

Destination:

Chicago Cubs. Also looking: Dodgers, Minnesota, White Sox, Philadelphia, and Angels. The Dodgers are said to want him back but Casey Blake is playing well. The M’s would’ve gotten more for him last year but will have to settle for a couple of “B” prospects. Perhaps Jack Z can package Beltre with some pitching (Brandon Morrow?) for something even better.


50-50 chance of being moved:

4. Yuni Betancourt

Management doesn’t like him. Coaches can’t stand his plate approach. Even the fans are getting wise to his crappy OBP. He’s a goner and the M’s will move him for whatever they can get. Don’t be fooled by seeing him bat in the #2 hole. It’s just to showcase him and pump his BA up with better pitches. Some team will trade for him (and move him to 2nd base) on the promise that he can be taught a new approach without being in a pitcher’s park. Good riddance.

Destination:

Minnesota. Also looking: LA Dodgers, Detroit, Philly. M’s won’t get much of anything and will have to eat some of Yuni’s salary just to get a “B” prospect or two.


5. Jeff Clement / Russell Branyan / Mike Carp

One of these 3 players must be moved. Bet your house that Jack Z will see if he can get something worthwhile for moving Branyan. Jack won’t let The Muscle go for nothing, and might try to sign him to an extension. The Muscle fits the organization’s philosophy of patience (.400 OBA) but is over 30, might want $7-10 million per season and has never been this good before. Clement is too hurt to play catcher and doesn’t hit enough to unseat Branyan at 1st base. The organization is all for giving talented young players a chance to play but seem hesitant to let Clement take Griffey’s spot as DH. Carp is the best long-term solution at 1st/DH and is young. Something tells me that Clement will be the one to get moved. Stay tuned.


6. Endy Chavez

Little Endy started hot and has cooled off back to reality. Of course, he wasn’t really a .300 hitter to begin with. He’s fine as a 4th outfielder but is a poor long-term fit on a club that has some outfielders who are burning to play (Raben, Saunders, and soon-to-be-drafted Dustin Ackley). By the way, did anyone notice that the team won more games with Endy batting leadoff rather than Ichiro? Rumors persist that he can be had. Perhaps he’ll be part of a package.


Probably not going anywhere:

7. Jose Lopez

Lopez is a head scratcher. At times, he plays like an All-Star, at others he completely vanishes. Once Yuni goes, fans will target him next. How much longer can the team watch Lopez bat .250? Is he regressing? He has too much potential and the team has no infield talent to replace him. If Lopez gets his act together, the 3rd base job could be his. No way he’s the starting 2nd bagger in 2010 or 2011. He should be the type of player that hits 20 HR, 90 RBI and bats .275+. If. If. If.

8. David Aardsma

Aardsma was a superb pickup for the M’s and has filled the setup man/closer role admirably. Although Aardsma has a power arm, he’s been prone to wildness which led the Red Sox to give him away. With so many relievers coming up in the next couple of years, Aardsma seems to be a likely trade candidate. However, there is no need to move him because the M's control his rights for the next several years. Jack Z would be wise to see what he can get anyway.

Not going anywhere:

9. Carlos Silva

After the M's took him out of the starting rotation, they stopped hemorrhaging losses. Fatty needs to follow Ty Willingham out of the state but he has $30 million reasons not to leave. Unless the M's can move him for another bad contract, or release him, he's probably the mop up guy.

10. Ken Griffey

Yes, he's done. He's not the guy we remember when he carried the M's to high heights and put the city on the map. Kenny built Safeco field with his black bat, bare hands, and hey-o attitude. Every night I'm at the game, I just want to see one more highlight to remind me of what life was like back in 1995. The team will probably call up Clement to share some ABs with the kid any day now.

Struggling Putz Reveals Jack Z's Skills

Former M's super closer and self-appointed team prankster JJ Putz is struggling -- almost Morrow like -- in his first season in the Big Apple. Last night, after entering in the 8th to set-up K-Rod, he blew a four-run Mets lead in a game New York would eventually lose to Pittsburgh, 8-5. 

Mets GM Omar Minaya, who's bullpen last year directly led them to another playoff-less season, gave up some significant pieces and potential to acquire Putz to be a shut-down pre-closer. In 28 games, his ERA is a disappointing 5.08 and he has as many walks 19 as strikeouts. 

Anyone who watched Putzy for the M's last year could have seen this coming. He was injured and when he wasn't, he just didn't look right. At least not like the nearly-hittable all-star Putz of 2007. 

One guy definitely paying attention: Mr. Jack Z. 

We hear about "selling high" on trades in all our sports and fantasy leagues. Jay-Z sold high on Putz, acquiring one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, Franklin Gutierrez (on a side note: Guti's Rooters, or whatever those sad handful of  centerfield fans are called, look like they consist of Franklin's mom, dad and two cousins. The crowds in Safeco look pathetic this year.), along with patient, almost-big-league-ready hitter, Mike Carp as well turning Aaron Heilman into a nice utility guy, Ronnie Cedeno. 

Sure, those guys aren't world beaters, but they're productive and fill holes in the system Jack Z is putting together. It's infinitely better than having a closer on the down slope of his career.

On the other hand, Bill Bavasi was the king of buying high and selling low (I'm convinced he had something to do with the country's economic collapse) and the damage he did will resonate for at least another three years. 

But Jay-Z has a chance to undo some of that damage this season with a host of tradeable chips, including Bedard, who we will root for again tonight again. And we won't even care if he wins. If he pitches well, it will give our new GM that much more leverage in trade negotiations.

Now, if he can somehow use that leverage to acquire some hitters so we will not continue to make the likes of Rich Hill look like Sandy Koufax. 

Phillies Shaping Into Bonafide Suitor

At least 6 Mariners are on the trading block now that our boys of very early spring have caused our front office to reach the inevitable realization that we will not be competing for a World Series championship (despite all of our hopes and prayers), says SI.com's prolofic baseball writer Jon Heyman.

Heyman says underachieving Canadian mercenary Erik Bedard will be the top target for a handful of clubs, with the Phillies shooting up the list of possible suitors after finding out that Brett Meyers may miss the rest of the season.

Others mentioned were the usual suspects: Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn, Yuniesky Betancourt, Miggy Batista and Russell "the Muscle" Branyan.

Phillies will also be targeting the ultra-talented Jake Peavy. But Peavy already turned down a trade to the White Sox and may not be willing to accept a trade to any team except the water-treading Cubs who still insanely harbor World Series aspirations despite being only a couple of games better than the M's. This leaves Bedard as the Phillies number one option.

And we all know how Bedard feels about being in Philly over Seattle. Jerk.

I'm not sure who the Phillies have on the farm, but I think we should start scouring it for new Mariners.