The next 2 1/2 weeks will go a long way in determining the success of the 2010 Mariners. If the M's keep winning, they will probably forego making significant changes by the trading deadline. However, if the M's fall out of it, they will probably move Bedard and/or Washburn, which would hasten their rebuilding process and increase their chances of long term success. By the start of the season, the M's will have alot of options and many important organizational decisions to make. Undoubtedly, the question that fans will be asking during spring training 2010, is who are these guys?
As we look toward 2010, it is conceivable that the M's will have at least 9 new faces on the 25 man roster. Beltre, Washburn, Bedard, Batista, Chavez, Griffey, Sweeney, and Branyan are all free agents next year and Betancourt has already been shipped to Kansas City. In addition, the team will have to make a decision on what to do about its catching situation (will Johjima find his way back to Japan ala Kaz Sasaki?) and may shuffle other pieces around. Most intriguing is that $48.75 million will come off the books from the following players:
* Beltre (13.4m)
* Washburn (9.85)
* Batista (9.5)
* Bedard (7.75)
* Betancourt (2.3)
* Chavez (2)
* Griffey (2)
* Branyan (1.4)
* Sweeney (0.5)
The M's will gain payroll flexibility but will have weaknesses at 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, and 1-2 starting pitchers. Without any moves, the M's lineup next year could look like:
1. RF - Ichiro
2. 2B - Lopez
3. 1B - Carp
4. DH - Clement
5. CF - Guiterrez
6. 3B - Tuiasosopo
7. LF - Saunders
8. C - Johjima/Johnson
9. SS - Cedeno
With smart decisions, the M's lineup might look like:
1. RF Ichiro
2. SS Hardy (trade)
3. 1B Branyan (resign; 2 years $15m)
4. 3B [trade]
5. CF Guiterrez
6. DH Nick Johnson (free agent; 1 year $6m) or Carp
7. 2B Lopez
8. C Moore/Johnson
9. LF Saunders
No one can argue that Jack Z hasn't shown already the ability to make shrewd moves to improve the team. All of his decisions have been golden so far. The casual fans and uneducated faithful may ask, "who are these guys?" but the uzr-reading stat-hound sabermetricians know better: the M's are building a team that will soon crush the big boys in the AL West.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Grading the Mariners
The Seattle Mariners are 46-42 heading into the Allstar break. They are in 3rd place in the American League West, and 4 games out of first behind the streaking Los Angeles Angels. Before the season started, many people predicted the M's to be in 3rd in the West, but few thought they'd be 4 games above 500. Let's take a look at why the M's are having success this year.
Starting Pitching: A-/B+
This would have been an A if it wasn't for Carlos Silva's six starts and a 1-3 record with an 8.48 ERA. More atrocious than Silva's record is the Mariners eating his behemoth 12,000,000 dollar salary for 09. O.k., enough, lets stop with Silva before I punch a hole my wall and kick my defensless dog while he's asleep.
Felix Hernandez has been lights out. Washburn is having a career year, which a 6-6 record doesn't reflect. If Washburn got any run support he'd easily have 9 wins this season. More impressive is his 112 innings pitched only halfway through the season, and his sub 3 ERA at 2.96.
Bedard has been fairly dominant despite a few injuries keeping him off the mound. Jason Vargas has done extremely well with his 3-3 record and 3.82 ERA. Garrett Olson and Chris Jakubauskas have been mediocre in spot fill in roles. All in all, the Mariners have one of the best rotations in baseball.
Bullpen: B
The emergence of David Aardsma as the Mariner closer could not have come at a better time. Morrow was struggling with his location and confidence without a clear cut reliever to replace him. Aardsma stepped right in and dazzled. He's saved 20 out of 22 games and has a 1.96 ERA. Those are Allstar numbers.
Mark Lowe has been a consistent arm and someone to count on in late innings. Sean White has a sub 3 ERA at 2.63. Even Miguel Batista has been quietly good with a 6-3 record and 3.33 ERA. Just don't put Miguel in the late innings where he's 0-3 in save opportunities.
Roy Corcoran has been struggling in long relief. Despite his 2-0 record, he's got a 6.88 ERA and a 16-6 BB to SO ratio. Shawn Kelly has struggled at times too going 0-2 in save opportunites and a 5.93 ERA.
It's safe to say without Aardsma the Mariners would 5 to 6 games under 500. No one else seems to have the stuff to be on the mound in the ninth inning.
Offense: D
The Mariner offense is laughable. I would rather watch an entire Seattle Storm game than watch the M's hit 1 through 9. Despite the best efforts of Ichiro, Branyan, and Gutierrez, the rest of the line-up stinks.
The Mariners have the worst catching duo in baseball with Kenji Johjima (BA 254) and Rob Johnson (BA 203). Jose Lopez has decent power numbers with 12 home runs, but is only batting 250. Griffey's batting 22o and Cedeno isn't even above the mendoza line.
The Mariner offense has only scored 348 runs in 88 games for an average of less than 4 runs a game. This is one of the lowest run totals in all of baseball. The team average is a pitiful 261 with an on base percentage of 317. It's a good thing Mariner pitching has been lights out, because this offense could not sustain a winning record.
Coaching: B-
Coaching is a tough grading category, because not too many people get to see what goes on behind the scenes. So far Wak has done a good job. I don't have many complaints about the way he's managing the club. This grade is based purely on a few questionable calls by the skipper on handling his bullpen and not going to his bench enough past the 7th inning. For example, not getting Chavez into the game after the 7th for defensive purposes.
Rick Adair has handled the pitching staff to perfection. On paper, our bullpen looks like a bunch of guys were just thrown together. No one would predict a bullpen with the likes of Jakubauskas, Kelly, White, and Bautista would be one of the strongest in baseball. Rick Adair deserves recognition for the influence he's had on this young bunch of guys.
Front Office: A
Seattle is loving Jack Zduriencik. Since coming to the Mariners Jack Z. has been wheeling and dealing. He first trade sent J.J. Putz packing for the Metz and in return got Franklin Gutierrez (who's turning out to be a stud in Center Field), Endy Chavez, Mike Carp, Aaron Heilman, and minor leaguers. Jack Z. then ships Heilman to the cubs for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson, who are both helping the club on a daily basis. I think Ronny has a bigger upside than his sub 200 average suggests. We'll just have to be patient with him.
Jack Z. kept the trade bug going by getting rid of Yuniesky Bettencourt for a couple minor league pitchers in Danny Cortez (only 22 yrs old) and class A pitcher Saito. Cortez is supposed to be one of the Padres better pitching prospects. Jack Z has also traded for Jack Hannahan and sent minor league pitcher Souza packing to the A's. Jack Hannahan was the starter for Oakland, but struggled at the plate and was sent down to AAA. I've got a good feeling we got a steal for Hannahan, who is a much better player than what he was showing for the A's.
Overall: B
I am extremely happy with the Mariners at the break. Despite a lacking offense, the club has a desire to win and are doing so with great pitching. I have complete confidence in Jack Z. and like all the moves he's been making thus far. We are just a few more trades and draft picks away from being competitive for the pennent every year.
Starting Pitching: A-/B+
This would have been an A if it wasn't for Carlos Silva's six starts and a 1-3 record with an 8.48 ERA. More atrocious than Silva's record is the Mariners eating his behemoth 12,000,000 dollar salary for 09. O.k., enough, lets stop with Silva before I punch a hole my wall and kick my defensless dog while he's asleep.
Felix Hernandez has been lights out. Washburn is having a career year, which a 6-6 record doesn't reflect. If Washburn got any run support he'd easily have 9 wins this season. More impressive is his 112 innings pitched only halfway through the season, and his sub 3 ERA at 2.96.
Bedard has been fairly dominant despite a few injuries keeping him off the mound. Jason Vargas has done extremely well with his 3-3 record and 3.82 ERA. Garrett Olson and Chris Jakubauskas have been mediocre in spot fill in roles. All in all, the Mariners have one of the best rotations in baseball.
Bullpen: B
The emergence of David Aardsma as the Mariner closer could not have come at a better time. Morrow was struggling with his location and confidence without a clear cut reliever to replace him. Aardsma stepped right in and dazzled. He's saved 20 out of 22 games and has a 1.96 ERA. Those are Allstar numbers.
Mark Lowe has been a consistent arm and someone to count on in late innings. Sean White has a sub 3 ERA at 2.63. Even Miguel Batista has been quietly good with a 6-3 record and 3.33 ERA. Just don't put Miguel in the late innings where he's 0-3 in save opportunities.
Roy Corcoran has been struggling in long relief. Despite his 2-0 record, he's got a 6.88 ERA and a 16-6 BB to SO ratio. Shawn Kelly has struggled at times too going 0-2 in save opportunites and a 5.93 ERA.
It's safe to say without Aardsma the Mariners would 5 to 6 games under 500. No one else seems to have the stuff to be on the mound in the ninth inning.
Offense: D
The Mariner offense is laughable. I would rather watch an entire Seattle Storm game than watch the M's hit 1 through 9. Despite the best efforts of Ichiro, Branyan, and Gutierrez, the rest of the line-up stinks.
The Mariners have the worst catching duo in baseball with Kenji Johjima (BA 254) and Rob Johnson (BA 203). Jose Lopez has decent power numbers with 12 home runs, but is only batting 250. Griffey's batting 22o and Cedeno isn't even above the mendoza line.
The Mariner offense has only scored 348 runs in 88 games for an average of less than 4 runs a game. This is one of the lowest run totals in all of baseball. The team average is a pitiful 261 with an on base percentage of 317. It's a good thing Mariner pitching has been lights out, because this offense could not sustain a winning record.
Coaching: B-
Coaching is a tough grading category, because not too many people get to see what goes on behind the scenes. So far Wak has done a good job. I don't have many complaints about the way he's managing the club. This grade is based purely on a few questionable calls by the skipper on handling his bullpen and not going to his bench enough past the 7th inning. For example, not getting Chavez into the game after the 7th for defensive purposes.
Rick Adair has handled the pitching staff to perfection. On paper, our bullpen looks like a bunch of guys were just thrown together. No one would predict a bullpen with the likes of Jakubauskas, Kelly, White, and Bautista would be one of the strongest in baseball. Rick Adair deserves recognition for the influence he's had on this young bunch of guys.
Front Office: A
Seattle is loving Jack Zduriencik. Since coming to the Mariners Jack Z. has been wheeling and dealing. He first trade sent J.J. Putz packing for the Metz and in return got Franklin Gutierrez (who's turning out to be a stud in Center Field), Endy Chavez, Mike Carp, Aaron Heilman, and minor leaguers. Jack Z. then ships Heilman to the cubs for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson, who are both helping the club on a daily basis. I think Ronny has a bigger upside than his sub 200 average suggests. We'll just have to be patient with him.
Jack Z. kept the trade bug going by getting rid of Yuniesky Bettencourt for a couple minor league pitchers in Danny Cortez (only 22 yrs old) and class A pitcher Saito. Cortez is supposed to be one of the Padres better pitching prospects. Jack Z has also traded for Jack Hannahan and sent minor league pitcher Souza packing to the A's. Jack Hannahan was the starter for Oakland, but struggled at the plate and was sent down to AAA. I've got a good feeling we got a steal for Hannahan, who is a much better player than what he was showing for the A's.
Overall: B
I am extremely happy with the Mariners at the break. Despite a lacking offense, the club has a desire to win and are doing so with great pitching. I have complete confidence in Jack Z. and like all the moves he's been making thus far. We are just a few more trades and draft picks away from being competitive for the pennent every year.
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