Football Friday - What's Your Fantasy? This Week: Running Backs

It’s time for MRW to come out of the closet and reveal his true feelings……….I’m a fantasy football fanatic. It’s true. I’m one of the biggest fantasy geeks around. My draft board is coming together and my player analysis is almost complete. We are still several months away from the preseason, but this is the time of year when championships are won. So Football Friday has become Fantasy Football Friday, or triple F for short. Well, triple F may not stick, but it is the size of former-Packer Gilbert Brown’s bra size anyway.

Let's start with my top 12 running backs in 2009:

1. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota

AP is the new LT. For a 5 or 6 year stretch, LT was the consensus #1 pick in all of fantasy. I see the same run in AP. He is only 24 years old and heading into his 3rd season. He has been scary good and he will only get better. There are only a handful of players in this league that are a threat to go the distance with every touch and he is one of them.

2. Michael turner – Atlanta

He was phenomenal in 2008, almost 1700 yards and 17 TD’s. No one and I mean no one saw that coming. We saw flashes of brilliance when he was in San Diego but it was in garbage time. He was always in LT’s shadow. Turner was drafted in the 4th round of most leagues last year but he won’t slide past #2 overall this year. The only knock on Turner is that he is not an every down back. He will lose some carries to Norwood and get pulled on 3rd downs, but he is a beast at the goal line.

3. Matt Forte – Chicago

I love this kid. In his first pro game he took a carry 50+ yards to the house. Forte has all the tools. He has the speed to break long runs, the strength to run in between the tackles and he has the softest hands outside of Westbrook. He led the league last year in receptions at the RB position. Forte had 379 total touches last year. Add Cutler behind center and defenses can’t stack the line. I expect Forte to improve on his numbers from last season and find much more running room this year.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville

He is going to be an absolute beast this year. He is probably the shortest starting running back in the league, but he has balls. Just ask Mr. Lights Out. We all saw the block he put on Merriman at the goal line. I rank MJD #4 because he is an every down back. Without Fred Taylor in the fold MJD will get all the carries. He scored 12 times last year on 197 carries. Imagine how many more TD’s he will score with 100+ more carries this year. He is also a monster in the passing game racking up 565 yards on 62 catches. He is like a poor man’s Westbrook, except he is one of the best goal line runners in the game.

5. Steven Jackson – St. Louis

If Steven Jackson could stay healthy and play a full season you could slot him in front of Forte at #3. The NFL has changed over the last few years. We now have the RBBC or running back by committee. This is a fantasy owner’s nightmare. S-Jax is a 3 down player. He runs well between the tackles, catches the ball like a receiver and mashes at the goal line. He is the type of back you could build a championship around. But he will sit 2-3 games due to injury (running style) and he plays for a shitty team that won’t score many TD’s.

6. DeAngelo Williams – Carolina

For the record, I’m not a DeAngelo Williams fan or believer. It will be impossible for him to duplicate his production from last year. I just don’t think Carolina is going to produce 30 rushing TD’s again. Williams will still split carries with Stewart who now has a year of experience under his belt. If Carolina falls down to the range of 20 rushing TD’s then DeAngelo’s piece of the pie will be about 10 or 11 scores. Remember, he wasn’t good enough to beat out Deshaun Foster for a starting gig the past few years. What happens if Stewart has the hot hand early and the Panthers ride him? Williams may find himself playing second fiddle to the bigger, faster Stewart. Williams is a high risk high reward player. I have Williams this high on my board, only because the players rated below him either have injury concerns or play with bad offenses. When it comes to Williams you have to ask yourself, do I really want my #1 guy to share the load 50/50? He’s just not my type of player.

7. LaDainian Tomlinson – San Diego

People might think I’m crazy for listing him this high. But please hear me out before passing judgment. He scored 12 TD’s last year with 1,536 combined yards. If I gave you this stat line without a name attached to it, would you take it 7 picks into a draft? The answer is hell yes. I think LT will even improve on these numbers. San Diego has a good offense that lives in the red zone. LT will continue to get the goal line carries. This pretty much guarantees him 10TD’s. He was hampered by a toe injury that bothered him all season and he looked awfully slow last year. But that injury is healed and LT has supposedly looked great in camp. The bolts also get a healthy Merriman back on defense. His presence alone with create more opportunities for the offense to put points on the board.

8. Frank Gore – San Francisco

If Frank Gore played on a better team he would move up 3 slots on my board. The reality is that SF sucks. They just don’t get into the red zone enough for Gore to put up huge numbers. He is probably one of my favorite players to watch run the ball. In his rookie season you would have thought defensive players broke into his mama’s house on Sunday, stole her good hair (weave), kicked grandma in the stomach and ate the entire peach cobbler. He really punished people and ran with a mean streak. He rarely went out of bounds and always fought for the extra yard. He still plays that way today. I like Gore because you won’t see him on the sidelines. He plays all three downs. However, I would like to see him get into the end zone a little more often.

9. Brian Westbrook – Philly

Westbrook gains yards like Kristy Ally gains LB’s, in chunks. Westbrook has been my favorite NFL player for the last 4 years. But his days of 2000 combined yard seasons are over. He has had several surgeries to his knees and just went under the knife a few days ago to remove bone spurs in his ankle. It seems like he is held together by band-aids. The Eagles also drafted McCoy who will steal a few touches. You can expect him to miss 2 to 3 games, have 8-10 TD’s and about 1,500 combined yards.

10. Chris Johnson – Tennessee

This kid can flat out burn. He was the fastest player in the 08 draft. I’m kind of surprised the Raiders didn’t pick him over McFadden (just kidding). LenDale White should do us all a favor and throw himself in front a bus. He is a touchdown vulture that seriously hampers Johnson’s stats. If he wasn’t around, Johnson would be a top 5 pick. As a rookie he had 1,488 combined yards and 10TD’s. With another year of experience, Johnson should command a larger role in the offense. If he gets it in the preseason, slot him as high as #6 on your draft board.

11. Steve Slaton – Houston

Slaton came out of nowhere last year. He was very opportunistic with all the injuries to the RB’s ahead of him on the depth chart. He racked up 1,659 total yards with 10 TD’s. Given his lack of size the Texans may take some carries away from him to keep him healthy. He won’t be the back of choice at the goal line either. He should be a steady producer all year.

12. Clinton Portis – Washington

Portis is starting to wear down. He has lugged a lot of carries over the past 7 seasons. This could be the year he hits the wall. He is pretty much guaranteed to get at least 325 carries if he stays healthy. He averaged 4.3 yards a carry in 2008 but most of that production was done in the first 8 games. He looked pedestrian the second half of the year. That trend could continue. I expect 8 – 10 TD’s and 1,500 combined yards.

Others you should considerable:

Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs.

Check back next week for my top 12 wide receivers.

Happy Dustin Ackley Day!

At sometime after 3pm PST, the M's will begin to rebuild their minor league system. Considered in the bottom third of baseball, Bill Bavasi traded away most of the talent that would've been MLB ready in 2009-2010. Jack Z will attempt to draft players today that will restock that system and bring it back to respectability. If the M's play their cards right, their farm system might be considered in the middle of the pack at the same time next year.

Whether Dustin Ackley (CF) or Aaron Crow (starting Pitcher) are taken, either will instantly become the M's #1 prospect. In fact, the first 4-5 players taken will probably land on the M's top 10 prospect list -- that's how bad their minor league talent has fallen.

Most intriguing is what the M's are attempting to do with their 2nd 1st round pick at #27. The MLB draft is the opposite the NBA or NFL drafts where the top talent gets taken first. In the MLB draft, often top 5 or top 10 stud talents will fall later or out of the first round due to financial concerns or signability. Poorer teams will sign a 2nd round talent in the first round if that player agrees to take less money than similar players in that slot. The M's are said to be negotiating with Steve Baron (a catcher), a projected 3rd rounder, and will take him with the 33rd pick, if he'll take 3rd round money. That way, the M's will overpay for a stud talent who falls to them at #27.

The M's, who possess deeper financial pockets than most of their baseball brethren, are strategically hoping that several stud pitchers will fall to them. The draft will be considered a wild success today if the M's draft one of the following pitchers at #27:

1. Tanner Scheppers
2. Matt Purke
3. James Paxton
4. Kyle Gibson

Any of these players are considered top 5-10 talents. Scheppers is said to have arm issues but throws a high 90's fastball.

Go get 'em, Jack Z!

Erik Bedard: Keep or Trade?

Now that the M’s are back to only one game under .500 and only 5.5 games out of first place in the AL West, the pressure on Jack Z to sign or deal Bedard is at an all-time high.

Fans seem to be in one of two camps: either trade the lefty to the highest bidder or lock him up to a long term deal. Bedard is like Two-Face in Batman—there are two different sides to him. You either love or hate the guy.

The Seattle Times ran an article a few days back about Bedard stating that he really does want to play for the M’s long-term, saying, “I love Seattle. I can’t complain– the city, the fans, the stadium, all of the new coaches we got, the players. It’s a lot of fun. I love it here.”

Is this posturing by Bedard or truly genuine? The same article also mentioned how Bedard and Jay Buhner have formed a friendship over fishing and Bedard typically fishes at Buhner’s house in Issaquah a few times a week when the M’s are in town. Should this make any difference to the M’s?

No, but it is worth examining further.

Bedard, never one for the limelight or big city, may actually like it in Seattle and may even be pitching better to stay here. Or in an effort to make a crap load of money elsewhere. Who knows? Let's look at what you get from the Candadian lefty.

Here are the positives:

-Bedard owns the sickest left-handed hook in baseball. Period.

-He is also 5-2 with a miniscule earned run average of only 2.47 (This is the American League people!!) His win/losses would be even better if not for the anemic M’s offense.

-Having an all-star season—should have more wins to show for it.

-In 65 innings of work, Bedard has only allowed 54 hits and has struck out a whopping 65.

-Left-handers are only hitting .203 against the dominant south-paw.

-He has allowed no more than 3 runs in any of his 11 starts.

Here are the negatives:

-Has only gone more than 7 innings in two starts.

-Highly injury prone—weak back and hip.

-Tendency to leave games early after hitting self-imposed “100 pitch limit.”

-Will never live up to magnitude of the Adam Jones trade

-Poor attitude (reminds me of Grumpy Smurf: I hate baseball)

While Bedard is truly pitching like the ace we all expected in the trade last season with the Dirty Birds, he is also the hottest commodity on the trade market. The Phillies obviously need another horse in the rotation and Bedard could be their man. Jack Z would be silly not to demand the farm in any trade for the south-paw and should explore all avenues.

If the M’s decide to lock him up long term, they would have a dominant 1-2 punch for the next three to five years. With any additional offense in future Jack Z trades, King and Bedard just might be the most feared 1-2 punch in baseball. These two arms in the starting rotation can win playoff series by themselves. With ANY offense, these two could win 20 games apiece. Easily.

In the end, I tend to bounce back and forth on what to do with Bedard. One minute I hate him, the next I stand up and yell when I watch that 12-6 hook absolutely freeze left handed hitters.

I’m putting my faith in Jack Z on this one to do the right thing whatever that is…

What does everyone else think?

Keep or Trade?

Monday Morning Musing, June 8

As always, these are random thoughts to get your week started on the right and/or wrong foot. Prepare to be spellbound. Or at least mildly amused.

I just can't contain my excitement any longer. The Seattle Mariners are on fire!!! 

Who cares if our offensive scoring prowess is worse than the two dudes from Superbad? So what if 40 percent of our starting rotation should be taking buses to games in small towns with names that end in "ville"? 

Right now, this team of thrown-together misfits, castoffs, underachieving middle infielders, over-the-hill Hall of Famers, aloof Asian superstars and over-priced free agent mistakes is positively scorching the earth like the climax of a Michael Bay film. 

Relatively speaking. 

In fact, the M's have won two in a row (shoula been three, Wladamir!) taken three straight series against solid competition (Angels, Orioles and Twins) and sit just one game under .500. Not bad, but not awesome. But here's the kicker. We're improving. That's right, the Mariners are getting better. 

The starting pitching has been fantastic. The new lineup, with Branyan hitting second, has been increasingly productive. 

But the most impressive wrinkle in this delightfully unpredictable season is that this team is coming to play every night  or afternoon. We lose focus and games, some that we shouldn't, some that we blew. Regardless, we're coming back the next day and playing hard. 

I credit Wak and I credit our cooky veterans. 

Wak, because he's willing to make changes (brilliant on the Branyan shift) and holds his players accountable for making preventable mistakes (Jose, Yuni, even Felix have all been taken to task for mental errors).   

By cooky veterans, I mean Griffey and Sweeney. These graybeards are keeping this team focused and in stitches. The major league baseball season is long and arduous. You need to have a short memory to keep coming back day after day and act like nothing (good or bad) happened yesterday. And what's the best way to forget about your troubles: laughing. Comedy as cure-all. 

When Griffey's gone, sadly, the Mariners will need to hire Zach Galafianakis to fill the comedic void. "The Hangover" star probably couldn't hit much worse. It hurts just to write that, but I'm sure, if he read that surprisingly topical joke, the new ego-less Ken "Cosby" Griffey would probably be laughing. When isn't he? 

Anyway, I'm enjoying it. 

Other musings: 

-This Bedard renaissance is a sham. He's a mercenary, plain and simple. If someone were to play him in a movie, it would be Jean Claude Van Dam. 

-He's also re-established himself as one of the top 5 nastiest pitchers in the American League. Scouts are watching. Too bad we still won't get half of what we gave up for him. 

-Seahawks starting tailback, Michael Vick. Sounds good, doesn't it. 

-If you saw Pau Gasol on the street, wouldn't you wonder why someone that tall had fallen so far and wasn't playing in the NBA? Wouldn't you point him to the nearest homeless shelter, keep walking and then make a (Chappelle) Rick James joke? "Cocaine is a helluva drug."

-I really hope the Magic win a couple of games against the Lakers, just to prolong the series. Aside from Rescue Me (best season yet and it goes all summer long) and the occasionally train-wreckish fun of crappy reality shows, TV is terrible this time of year.