Football Friday - What's Your Fantasy? This Week: Running Backs

It’s time for MRW to come out of the closet and reveal his true feelings……….I’m a fantasy football fanatic. It’s true. I’m one of the biggest fantasy geeks around. My draft board is coming together and my player analysis is almost complete. We are still several months away from the preseason, but this is the time of year when championships are won. So Football Friday has become Fantasy Football Friday, or triple F for short. Well, triple F may not stick, but it is the size of former-Packer Gilbert Brown’s bra size anyway.

Let's start with my top 12 running backs in 2009:

1. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota

AP is the new LT. For a 5 or 6 year stretch, LT was the consensus #1 pick in all of fantasy. I see the same run in AP. He is only 24 years old and heading into his 3rd season. He has been scary good and he will only get better. There are only a handful of players in this league that are a threat to go the distance with every touch and he is one of them.

2. Michael turner – Atlanta

He was phenomenal in 2008, almost 1700 yards and 17 TD’s. No one and I mean no one saw that coming. We saw flashes of brilliance when he was in San Diego but it was in garbage time. He was always in LT’s shadow. Turner was drafted in the 4th round of most leagues last year but he won’t slide past #2 overall this year. The only knock on Turner is that he is not an every down back. He will lose some carries to Norwood and get pulled on 3rd downs, but he is a beast at the goal line.

3. Matt Forte – Chicago

I love this kid. In his first pro game he took a carry 50+ yards to the house. Forte has all the tools. He has the speed to break long runs, the strength to run in between the tackles and he has the softest hands outside of Westbrook. He led the league last year in receptions at the RB position. Forte had 379 total touches last year. Add Cutler behind center and defenses can’t stack the line. I expect Forte to improve on his numbers from last season and find much more running room this year.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville

He is going to be an absolute beast this year. He is probably the shortest starting running back in the league, but he has balls. Just ask Mr. Lights Out. We all saw the block he put on Merriman at the goal line. I rank MJD #4 because he is an every down back. Without Fred Taylor in the fold MJD will get all the carries. He scored 12 times last year on 197 carries. Imagine how many more TD’s he will score with 100+ more carries this year. He is also a monster in the passing game racking up 565 yards on 62 catches. He is like a poor man’s Westbrook, except he is one of the best goal line runners in the game.

5. Steven Jackson – St. Louis

If Steven Jackson could stay healthy and play a full season you could slot him in front of Forte at #3. The NFL has changed over the last few years. We now have the RBBC or running back by committee. This is a fantasy owner’s nightmare. S-Jax is a 3 down player. He runs well between the tackles, catches the ball like a receiver and mashes at the goal line. He is the type of back you could build a championship around. But he will sit 2-3 games due to injury (running style) and he plays for a shitty team that won’t score many TD’s.

6. DeAngelo Williams – Carolina

For the record, I’m not a DeAngelo Williams fan or believer. It will be impossible for him to duplicate his production from last year. I just don’t think Carolina is going to produce 30 rushing TD’s again. Williams will still split carries with Stewart who now has a year of experience under his belt. If Carolina falls down to the range of 20 rushing TD’s then DeAngelo’s piece of the pie will be about 10 or 11 scores. Remember, he wasn’t good enough to beat out Deshaun Foster for a starting gig the past few years. What happens if Stewart has the hot hand early and the Panthers ride him? Williams may find himself playing second fiddle to the bigger, faster Stewart. Williams is a high risk high reward player. I have Williams this high on my board, only because the players rated below him either have injury concerns or play with bad offenses. When it comes to Williams you have to ask yourself, do I really want my #1 guy to share the load 50/50? He’s just not my type of player.

7. LaDainian Tomlinson – San Diego

People might think I’m crazy for listing him this high. But please hear me out before passing judgment. He scored 12 TD’s last year with 1,536 combined yards. If I gave you this stat line without a name attached to it, would you take it 7 picks into a draft? The answer is hell yes. I think LT will even improve on these numbers. San Diego has a good offense that lives in the red zone. LT will continue to get the goal line carries. This pretty much guarantees him 10TD’s. He was hampered by a toe injury that bothered him all season and he looked awfully slow last year. But that injury is healed and LT has supposedly looked great in camp. The bolts also get a healthy Merriman back on defense. His presence alone with create more opportunities for the offense to put points on the board.

8. Frank Gore – San Francisco

If Frank Gore played on a better team he would move up 3 slots on my board. The reality is that SF sucks. They just don’t get into the red zone enough for Gore to put up huge numbers. He is probably one of my favorite players to watch run the ball. In his rookie season you would have thought defensive players broke into his mama’s house on Sunday, stole her good hair (weave), kicked grandma in the stomach and ate the entire peach cobbler. He really punished people and ran with a mean streak. He rarely went out of bounds and always fought for the extra yard. He still plays that way today. I like Gore because you won’t see him on the sidelines. He plays all three downs. However, I would like to see him get into the end zone a little more often.

9. Brian Westbrook – Philly

Westbrook gains yards like Kristy Ally gains LB’s, in chunks. Westbrook has been my favorite NFL player for the last 4 years. But his days of 2000 combined yard seasons are over. He has had several surgeries to his knees and just went under the knife a few days ago to remove bone spurs in his ankle. It seems like he is held together by band-aids. The Eagles also drafted McCoy who will steal a few touches. You can expect him to miss 2 to 3 games, have 8-10 TD’s and about 1,500 combined yards.

10. Chris Johnson – Tennessee

This kid can flat out burn. He was the fastest player in the 08 draft. I’m kind of surprised the Raiders didn’t pick him over McFadden (just kidding). LenDale White should do us all a favor and throw himself in front a bus. He is a touchdown vulture that seriously hampers Johnson’s stats. If he wasn’t around, Johnson would be a top 5 pick. As a rookie he had 1,488 combined yards and 10TD’s. With another year of experience, Johnson should command a larger role in the offense. If he gets it in the preseason, slot him as high as #6 on your draft board.

11. Steve Slaton – Houston

Slaton came out of nowhere last year. He was very opportunistic with all the injuries to the RB’s ahead of him on the depth chart. He racked up 1,659 total yards with 10 TD’s. Given his lack of size the Texans may take some carries away from him to keep him healthy. He won’t be the back of choice at the goal line either. He should be a steady producer all year.

12. Clinton Portis – Washington

Portis is starting to wear down. He has lugged a lot of carries over the past 7 seasons. This could be the year he hits the wall. He is pretty much guaranteed to get at least 325 carries if he stays healthy. He averaged 4.3 yards a carry in 2008 but most of that production was done in the first 8 games. He looked pedestrian the second half of the year. That trend could continue. I expect 8 – 10 TD’s and 1,500 combined yards.

Others you should considerable:

Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs.

Check back next week for my top 12 wide receivers.