Party's Over - M's Crashing

You know what I love about hometown fans? They don't or can't look objectively at their own team. Any dissenting opinion is a Doubter; someone who is purposely unwilling to be happy even if the team is enjoyed the mirage of short-term success on the field. Every sports writer in town - including some guys I know at Wetland Sports - swallowed the Mariner Kool-aid and allowed themselves to believe this team was capable of competing for the playoffs. Yes, I'm a Doubter - I don't let my emotions take away from my knowledge of the game. I never played baseball, and neither did Theo Epstein and alot of very talented GMs in the game. By the time the dust settles on the 2009 Mariners, the results will show I'm right. The M's will prove that they are indeed a 75 win team.

Here's my baseball philosophy: baseball is about scoring more runs than your opponent. I don't care how you get there, just get there. If you pitch well, but can't hit, you're still going to lose. The M's are talent-deprived and as a result, they won't be able to sustain any kind of success. Yes, they are better, but haven't got a core group of guys to build around.

Ken Rosenthal wrote in a recent article that the M's won't be sellers at the deadline. He's absolutely wrong. Jack Z is too smart to let the Erik Bedard, Adrian Beltre, and Jarrod Washburn walk away for nothing at the end of the season (although Beltre might not be traded if classified a Type A free agent because the acquiring team must give the M's their 1st round pick). Jack Z knows that all players are simply assets - you buy low (Russell Branyan + the bullpen) and sell high. The July 31 trading deadline will be incredibly important to this franchise, as the M's will move their assets and attempt to acquire new assets (younger players with upside) to build their core.

Here's the potential team (2010/2011+):
1B Russell Branyan/Mike Carp
2B Carlos Triunfel (or SS)
3B Jose Lopez/Tui?/Matt Mantei
SS ?
DH ?
CF Franklin Guiterrez
LF ?
RF Ichiro
Starting pitching: need starts #2-#4.

Yes, Jack Z is the right guy to lead the team to success. However, that success is at least 2 years away.

Chemistry?

For all those who care about "chemistry", get over it. Chemistry, while important, is inherently unpredictible. You build your 25 man roster by going out and getting the best 25 men you can. You can't win ballgames with over-the-hill and past-their-prime ballplayers like Mike Sweeney and Ken Griffey. Both guys are killing the offense and have no business batting anywhere in the 3-4-5-6 spots in the order. Both guys should be platoon players - look at their splits. It's cute that Griffey has a "Kangaroo Court" and wears a robe/gold chain to try to loosen up guys. You won't hear much about that when the M's hit the basement and start to dissolve.

The M's have scored 4 runs in 4 days -- and have lost all 4 games. But ha ha! Griffey's got us all wearing Don Wakamatsu ties on the roadie flights. Boy Griffey and Sweeney sure are cool!

2009 Huskies Offensive Line Could Literally be Offensive

I absolutely love Fridays. It represents the end of the work week and the start of the weekend. It also means it’s time for Football Friday. Since we are officially in the off-season of professional and college football, I’ve decided over the next several weeks to break down and analyze position by position the Washington Huskies offense and defense. I’m going to kick this thing off in the trenches with the maulers up front, the big nasties, our favorite fatties, the Offensive Line.

The success of an Offensive Line is hard to quantify. There are two measurable categories, pass protection and the running game. Obviously a dynamic quarterback or running back can make an average OL look dominant. Unfortunately, in 2008 the Huskies lacked both (Locker only played 4 games).

The OL certainly struggled in 2008. They were a major factor in why the Huskies were 0-12 (actually the entire piss-poor team was responsible). It was a bit surprising considering they were fresh off an outstanding 2007 campaign where Louis Rankin was a monster. Rankin quietly put together a season that ranked in the top 5 Husky rushing seasons of all time. But that was a distant memory.

After losing Garcia and Bulyca to graduation, the 2009 OL is in a world of hurt. Garcia was the heart and soul of the OL. He had a mean streak and played the position with grit. He had the toughness and tenacity necessary to wear down a defense. He played an entire season after a Lisfranc sprain that should have ended his career, enough said. Now, the OL is left with a bunch of average 3 star recruits that haven’t been developed properly. Come September the starting unit should look like this:

LT-Cody Habben
LG- Ben Ossai
C-Ryan Tolar
RG-Senio Kelemete
RT-Drew Schaefer

Habben, Ossai and Tolar are returning starters. They make a formidable left side of the line. If I was a betting man (and I am just ask my bookie) I would bet my 401K that Sarkisian will be running to the left most of the time. These three could gel and open up some holes and eyes. Their experience on the left side is also important as they will protect Locker’s blind side. We all know if Locker goes down, the season goes with him and I would rather let another man do a body shot of my bare chest than see Fouch under center one more time. Bottom line, these three should be good.

I’m most worried about the entirely too young right side of the line. At the beginning of the spring, Sark brilliantly moved Kelemete back to his original position as an Offensive Lineman. Coming out of Evergreen HS, Kelemete was a 4 star recruit rated #19 in the country by Scout.com at the OL position. There is a logjam of young talent on the D-Line and moving Kalemete to offense definitely makes sense. Kelemete ran with the #1 offense early and concluded the Spring Game as the starting RG on the depth chart. Kelemete is very athletic and will be a starter for the next 3 years. Right now, he is a rookie who has yet to play a down at this position on the college level. The man to his right, Drew Schaefer is a redshirt freshman who hasn’t played a down either. Schaefer was a 3 star recruit out of Eastlake HS rated #32 by Scout.com. Kelemete and Schaefer are talented, but until they gain some experience they will get beat all year like they stole something.

Saying the Huskies lack depth on the OL is an understatement. If a single starter suffers an injury the season will be in jeopardy. Center Mykenna Ikehara is the only back-up that can step in and perform. Like Kelemete and Schaefer, he was a highly rated recruit in the class of 08’. The rest of the second unit couldn’t even start for Bellevue HS. LT Mark Armelin, RG Morgan Rosborough and RT Skylar Fancher are horrible.

Check back in 2 weeks for the next Football Friday post.

Tuesday Top 10: Biggest Seattle athlete busts

Today's top 10 is none other than the worst athlete acquisitions in Seattle sports history, be it college recruiting, pro drafts, or free agents. The criteria in ranking these was how significant of a talent evaluation blunder occurred, whether it be a high school prospect or an aging superstar being signed for too much money.

Feel free to add your thoughts / additional athletes. Here are mine:

10. Adrian Oliver, UW basketball: This kid always drove me nuts when he was with the Dawgs. He came out of Modesto Christian (CA) High School highly touted, the #8 PG in the nation according to Scout.com in fact, having offers from the likes of Kentucky, Gonzaga, and Cal. But his slow, methodical play and sometimes timid demeanor was no match for Lorenzo Romar's style, and was eventually relegated to the bench in favor of UW's quicker, scrappier guards, something Oliver took issue with and finally transferred to San Jose State after his sophomore year. He never came into his own at UW before he decided to opt for the big-fish-small-pond appeal of SJSU and the Western Athletic Conference.

9. Kenji Johjima, Mariners: .271 / 40 HR / 181 RBIs should earn you the reward of a three-year contract extension worth $24 million. Unfortunately for the Mariners, those are Johjima's career stats through three seasons, one month -- not a single-season total. What's worse, those statistics are heavily weighed from his first two years in the big leagues. Since then, he's hit .227 in a disasterous 2008 campaign and is off to another slow start this year, with Ms pitchers continuing to question his game-calling ability.

8. J.R. Hasty, UW football: Hasty, one of the highest-touted running backs to come to U Dub out of Bellevue High, where he scored an impressive 50 touchdowns his senior year, was the gem of Tyrone Willingham's first recruiting class in 2005. Most thought he would be the next great tailback at UW. But six carries for 18 yards, academic ineligibility, and suspensions from the team for blowing off workouts summed up his pathetic career as a Husky.

7. Jeff Cirillo, Mariners: The epitome of why teams should never hedge their bets on a "hitter" from Colorado (also see "Matt Holliday and his .223 average for the Oakland A's"). The Mariners traded eventual all-star closer Brian Fuentes and two others for Cirillo prior to the 2002 season. The largely ineffective third baseman was paid just over $13 million and posted batting averages of .249 and .205 in the two years he was with the team.

6. Dan McGwire, Seahawks: It's unfortunate this McGwire evidently wasn't on the roids. McGwire was the first of two major high-draft blunders by the Seahawks (keep reading for the second), being selected 16th overall in the 1991 NFL draft. He was a backup to Dave Krieg in his rookie season and was expected to be the quarterback of the future, but after a terrible preseason the next year, "Mark's Brother" was named third string quarterback behind the immortals Stan Gelbaugh and Kelly Stouffer. In 1993, the Seahawks drafted Rick Mirer (here's some foreshadowing for you) and gave up on McGwire. After spending one season in Miami, his NFL career was over.

5. Richie Sexson, Mariners: Four years, $50 million. The marriage started out promising, Big Sexy hitting 39 HRs and 121 RBIs in his first year with the Ms (2005.) But then it all went downhill, culminating with his .205 season in 2007 and eventual release from the team in 2008. Ultimately, it was either a home run or an out for Sexson, the latter far outweighing any power numbers he was brought to Seattle to produce.

4. Olden Polynice, Sonics: At first you think, Polynice, really? What was so bad about him? But consider the Sonics traded their first round selection (5th overall), a guy by the name of Scottie Pippen, to the Bulls for Polynice, the #8 pick in the 1987 NBA draft. I'd go on with statistics to support why this was a bust, but do I really have to? OP had a decent career (7.8 points, 6.7 boards), but in contrast to who the Sonics originially drafted, there's no contest. Next to Bowie/Jordan, this was the ultimate "oops" by an NBA team's front office.

3. Ryan Anderson, Mariners: Dubbed the "Little Unit", the 6'10 lefty was the Mariners' top draft choice in 1997 and rated the team's top prospect from 1998-2002 in the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Three times, Baseball American named Anderson the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. At every season's end, unhappy Ms fans would find optimism thinking "just wait, we'll have the Little Unit in our rotation next year." A $2.175 million signing bonus and multiple shoulder surgeries later, Anderson was let go by the Mariners in 2005, never seeing Safeco Field.

2. Jim McIlvaine, Sonics: Nearly the greatest bonehead acquisition in Seattle sports history, McIlvaine was sought out to be the heir apparent to Sam "Big Smooth" Perkins. Sonics' brass figured the 7'1 center would provide the missing piece for the team coming off an NBA finals loss to the Bulls, and signed him to an a seven-year, $33.6 million free-agent contract in 1996 after posting 2.3 points, 2.9 rebounds and two blocks per game for the Washington Bullets the season prior. Seattle fans were outraged, in addition to superstar forward Shawn Kemp, who had been asking for a contract increase after leading the team to a franchise-record 64 wins and its best postseason performance in 17 years. The decision by Seattle's front office to deny Kemp a salary increase and to award the unproven center with such a large-scale offer is widely thought to have hurt the team's chemistry and spelled the beginning of the end for the strong Sonics teams of the mid-90s. McIlvaine's first season in Seattle ended up being his best, registering career highs in points per game (3.8), rebounds per game (4.0), and blocks (2.0). I'd give McIlvaine's acquisition the number one spot, except everyone knew he wasn't good to begin with and the Sonics still paid him an obscene amount of money.

1. Rick Mirer, Seahawks: The #2 pick overall by the Hawks in the 1993 NFL draft never lived up to his Montana-esque Notre Dame hype. Mirer's four seasons in Seattle gave fans 41 TDs to 56 INTs and a QB rating in the 60s. Not exactly franchise-quarterback numbers. The magnitude of being the #2 overall pick and a quarterback at that, paired with the fact Mirer never lived up to his high expectations at any point in his career, gives his time in Seattle as the worst acquisition and largest evaluation of talent error in the city's sports history.

Ichiro/Boone Rift?

Just read a solid M's/Griffey article posted by Tracy Ringolsby of Fox Sports.com.

Enjoy.

Never knew about the Boone/Ichiro rift...

5 Random Thoughts About the Game Last Night

Here's a handful of random thoughts and observations from last night's 6-5 loss to the Rangers. Enjoy.

1. Has anyone sat out of a game before due to an "inflamed colon?"

Here's Griffey's explanation:

"I know exactly what it is -- inflamed colon. It can range from things you eat, to mood swings, loss of a little puppy. It is just sore. It will be all right. It just comes on when it wants to. It started this morning."

2. I almost spit up my chicken BBQ sandwich in the 9th inning when Yuni walked for the first time in 97 at bats. People in the crowd were actually chanting, "Don't swing!"

3. Franklin Gutierrez is a player. It is time for Wak to think about putting Guti back in the two hole and switching Chavez into the 8 or 9 spot in the lineup.

4. Is Beltre ever going to go deep again? Clean-up hitters should NOT have zero homers in 106 at bats. I realize the guy is gritty, plays injured and mans the hot corner without a cup but enough already! Let's go Adrian!!

5. Branyon is a stud. They don't call him "Russell the muscle" for no reason. The guy is hitting a cool .320 with 7 HR's and 15 RBIs in only 75 at bats. He is the only person in our lineup opposing teams are pitching around.

Cut Fatty Now

No one hates Carlos Silva more than I do.

I hated him from the moment the M's signed him in December 2007. The Twins considered DFAing Silva after he was awful from 2004-2006. During that time, opponents were hitting .300+ against him. Silva shocked the world by putting together a decent season in 2007, shockingly, his walk year to free agency.

Somehow, Silva's agent defrauded the M's into believing that Silva was an "innings eater" who would perform even better outside of the Metrodome. Bill Bavasi drove a truckload of money to Silva's house and was easily the high bidder when no one wanted him. Not surprisingly, the Twins made no effort to re-sign Silva and called up a AAA starter instead.

Carlos Silva must be released as soon as possible.

He can't pitch, teammates don't like him (he affects so-called "team chemistry"), reporters don't like him, and he's preventing better, younger players from showing their stuff. We'll never know if Jason Vargas or Garrett Olsen can pitch unless we open a slot for them -- Silva's slot. At the very least, the club will improve simply by not having him pitch.

Jack Z, for the good of the ballclub, please put Carlos Silva out of his misery. And do Miguel Batista next.

Monday Morning Musings, May 4

The Muse is tired from a weekend filled with Mint Juleps and Mariner marathon comebacks. We're like a fat kid after too much cake -- we need a nap. Nevertheless, our somnolent state will not prevent us from randomly musing about sports this, and every, Monday morning.

-Hummer stretch limo-sized win for the Mariners last night. Jose Lopez continues his tradition as the "Even Steven" of the team: for every terrible play he makes in the field, he gets a game-winning hit. I'll take it.

What I'm gathering from watching this team, from what's being written by print columnists and bloggers (even The Doubter isn't so doubtful anymore!), is that this team is mentally tough and hungry. And what's more: they actually like each other. Crazy, right? Just look on the front page of the Times sports site. Ichiro looks as giddy as a Japanese school girl (and is about the size of one) jumping into what looks like the beginning of a massive man-hug between Lopez and Beltre. Inspiring? Definitely. Slightly homoerotic? Absolutely.

-The Seahawks signing of Leroy Hill gives us the best linebacking trio in the league, period. But without pressure from the front four -- Hello undnerachieving Lawrence Jackson, Kearney "the Gurney," Daryl (Un)Tapp(ed Potential) -- they will still have trouble stopping teams on third down.

-Spent Saturday afternoon working on a column about my obsession with the Bulls-Celtics series, but then the Kentucky Derby and a bottle of Maker's Mark happened.

Horse racing is not something we usually write about here, mostly because none of us know anything about it, but, if you missed it, Saturday's race was fascinating and thrilling. Mine That Bird was nowhere to be seen until the last turn. From that point on, Bird looked like he was moving in fast-forward while the rest of the field was in slow mo. He darted in an out of the pack like Barry Sanders and absolutely crushed the competition.

-Bulls-Celtics, bottom line: Best. Series. Ever. If nothing else exciting happens for the rest of the playoff, at least the NBA gave us this.

-Blazers were manhandled by the Rockets. Hit the weight room this summer kids.

-My English mate, James, paid $15 to get into a bar to watch his fellow countryman, Ricky Hatton, get his face turned into Shepherd's Pie by Manny Pacquiao. I felt he got ripped off, but James said Pac Man was so impressive it was worth it. When Pac Man fights Pretty Boy Floyd Mayweather, I might even shell out the $15 to watch it.

-Thanks to a gift from my sister, I'm once again a Sports Illustrated reader. They've rewarded me with a great story on Ken Griffey Jr. two weeks ago and brief about the Sounders last week. I don't care what people say: SI still has the best writing in all of sports media.