All is happy in the Mariner nation after an improbable 5-2 start on the road and suprising 1.5 game lead in the AL West. Like giddy schoolgirls, the fans are calling into talkshows and raving about Jack Z's changes, or Wak's philosophies. You'd have to be an idiot or complete pessimist to complain or find fault on what has happened so far. Thanks, but I'm neither.
There are some discouraging signs that the bubble may be about to burst. As a club, the M's still can't get on base. In fact, no Mariner has cracked the top 20 in OBP in the American League. Although Ken Griffey Junior has walked 6 times (tied for 4th in the American League), the M's as a club have the 5th lowest OBP in Major League Baseball. While Yuni Betancourt leads the team in at-bats (27), he hasn't drawn a single walk. No other Mariner has more than 2. Should that matter? In 2008, the top three teams in runs scored were also the top three teams with the highest OBP. Three of the four worst teams in OBP (San Diego, Seattle, Pittsburgh), were teams that finished last in their respective divisions. That year, the M's lost 101 games, and had an OBP of .318; good for 28th out of 30 teams. In 2009, the M's OBP is eerily similar at .320.
Let's face it, the pitching has been better than expected. The M's are 5th in ERA (3.42) and opposing batters are only hitting .227 against them; good for 3rd in the Majors. Kudos to the King, Bedard, Washburn, and the bullpen.
However, despite the all the media-induced hype about "Jerod learned to throw a changeup" and "Silva lost 30 pounds", most players' stats regress to the back of their baseball cards. In other words, Griffey will stop walking and start hacking, Endy will come down to earth, Washburn is due for a fall, Bedard is a fragile, 100 pitch weakling who is good for only last 6 innings, the bullpen isn't very good, and Silva is a fat tub of goo.
Unless the M's either continue their amazing pitching, or learn how to get on base at a higher rate, their hot start may be an aberration.
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Betancourt hasn't cracked more than 17 walks in three full seasons. 17.
ReplyDeletePeople are rallying around the M's again because Seattle has "fair weather" fans. I wouldn't be surprised if the M's sold out just as long as they're in first place. Any signs of losing and the fans will disappear.
ReplyDeleteThat lasted one game. I went last night and the attendance was reported as 18k. I swear it was less than 1/3 full. Its still too cold out for the true fairweather fans to start showing up.
ReplyDeleteI like the Doubter's perspective. They are in trouble.
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